CHINESE
ENGLISH
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Liu Yongbin has always felt \u0026 amp; ldquo; very confused \u0026 amp; rdquo;, this is the rare feeling of business for more than 20 years. He is the general manager of a domestic electrical company in Guangdong. The company produces mid -to -high -end cold fan products and sold to the United States, Southeast Asia and other countries. Now, he decides to switch to production outdoor products and pet dryers.
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\u0026 amp; ldquo; profit is getting thinner. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Liu Yongbin said that due to the double the cost of raw materials and shipping, coupled with factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi last year, the advantages of \u0026 amp; ldquo; the advantages of quality and low price \u0026 amp; rdquo;
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Shaoxing textile owner Qin Bo and Guangdong furniture businessman Zhang Yuanqing also faced similar problems to varying degrees. Qin Bo's factory has decreased by 20 % to 30 % compared with the same period last year, and the repayment cycle has also increased by two months. Zhang Yuanqing believes that the current difficulty is \u0026 amp; ldquo;
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According to the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports in April were 3.9 % year -on -year, a significant decrease from 14.7 % last month. From the perspective of the industry, according to the analysis of the China Electromechanical Product Import and Export Association, the export volume of electromechanical products increased slightly by 0.11 % year -on -year. Although it maintained a long year -on -year growth of 23 months, the increase was significantly lower than 11.4 % in March, which was also the same, and it was also the same. The lowest increase since June 2020. In the field of labor -intensive types, the growth rate of textile products, furniture, and clothing exports has also fallen sharply.
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Behind this is the actual situation of countless foreign trade enterprises. The industrial production order in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta has been disrupted due to the epidemic, and the logistics of poor logistics, raw materials and rising costs have continued to undergo pressure. Due to the obstruction of the supply side, overseas orders and customers were lost. At the same time, Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and other countries in March and April, exports of labor -intensive products have risen significantly year -on -year. According to the analysis of Huading Securities, China's export share has fallen to the same period in March 2021 this year. The basic \u0026 amp; ldquo; add \u0026 amp; rdquo; my country export share. Mexico, Turkey and other places have also become a popular destination for production capacity and order transfer due to geopolitical advantages from European and American countries.
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However, most interviewees believe that this is just a short -term impact, and the industrial chain has not completely moved. As one of the \u0026 amp; ldquo; carriage \u0026 amp; rdquo; how to stabilize exports is particularly concerned about all parties.
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Weakened demand and superimposed order outflow
123] Liu Yongbin entered the home appliance industry in 2001. He has several factories in Guangdong and has more than 300 employees. 95 % of the company's products are exports, which are foundry for foreign brands. The mid -to -high -end cold fans are transported to the United States and Southeast Asian countries through Shenzhen, Nansha and other ports. \u0026 nbsp;
In the past, these high -end cold fans priced at $ 300 to 500 can bring him 15 % to 25 % of profits. Liu Yongbin said that the largest customer is in the United States, they have strong purchasing power, the goods have a premium, and the profit can reach 25 %. \u0026 nbsp;
Chinese products have always been known for their quality and low price, \u0026 amp; ldquo; American certified power line, selling 6 dollars locally, 1.5 US dollars in China, it can be able to be 1.5 US dollars. Buy. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Liu Yongbin said, but now some advantages have been basically flattened. \u0026 nbsp;
The prices of sea transportation rose. In the past, the shipping cost of a container to the United States was $ 2,000, and now it has risen to more than 20,000 US dollars. Because the FOB (customer payment freight) mode is basically adopted, this has caused customers to fade the order of order. \u0026 nbsp;
The transportation efficiency is also decreasing. On April 29, Liu Yongbin had a number of goods from Nansha Port to Vietnam. It was not until May 3 that the ship was only opened. When the epidemic occurred in Shenzhen in March, the 2/5 products that were originally exported through Shenzhen were transferred to other ports. \u0026 Amp; ldquo; other ports exploded, and the efficiency was affected. Instead. \u0026 amp; rdquo; \u0026 nbsp;
Affected by transportation costs and efficiency, customers tend to choose geopolitical merchants. Due to the large volume of home appliances, the transportation cost is relatively large. Liu Yongbin said that a container was only equipped with 900 cold fans. It was allocated at 140,000 yuan in freight. A cold fan was nearly 160 yuan. Liu Yongbin's international competitors mainly come from Vietnam, Mexico, India and other places, and the influence from Mexico is particularly great. \u0026 amp; ldquo; It takes a month to transport Chinese products to the United States now,It only takes a day to transport Mexico to the United States through the US -Mexico Highway, even if it is 10 % and 20 % more expensive than China, it sometimes has an advantage. \u0026 amp; rdquo; he said. \u0026 nbsp;
Huang Zhiyong is the general manager of Shenzhen Jert International Logistics Co., Ltd., and the company's business is responsible for transporting goods from the factory to Shenzhen and other places. \u0026 amp; ldquo; I have encountered many new situations since the epidemic \u0026 amp; rdquo; Huang Zhiyong said that I have never heard of the container in the dock. \u0026 amp; ldquo; Now the shipping period is often delayed, causing the dock goods to be unable to get out and the goods accumulate. \u0026 amp; rdquo; He said that the previous layer of the dock was full of 6 containers, and now it has been stacked to 8, and it can't be put. \u0026 nbsp;
The accumulation of containers does not mean that the order explosion order is actually the opposite. \u0026 amp; ldquo; Our business can obviously reflect the good and bad export business. \u0026 amp; rdquo; He told \"China News Weekly\" that when the previous efficiency was high, a driver could run two orders a day, and more than 60 drivers could run more than 100 orders a day. Cheng, \u0026 amp; ldquo; now half of the transportation vehicles are stopped \u0026 amp; rdquo;. \u0026 nbsp;
According to the investigation of more than 500 participating companies in the Canton Fair in April in April, 47.2 % of the companies in hand in hand are compared with the spring of the previous spring. Both in autumn have declined, and only 12.6 % of companies indicate that orders have increased year -on -year. International logistics (84.5 %) and raw material prices (80.1 %) are still the two most prominent issues that the company interviewed, which has caused the company's profits to be significantly compressed and diluted. Essence \u0026 nbsp;
Liu Yongbin's export volume last year was about 70 million yuan. He was originally not optimistic about 2021, but due to the repeated global regions last year, The epidemic affects the suspension of work, and the epidemic controls the normal production of Chinese companies, but the operating effect is good. In the first four months of this year, the order volume decreased by 1/3 compared to the same period last year. \u0026 amp; ldquo; It is expected that this year can only reach half of last year. \u0026 amp; rdquo; He said that the declined profits made him look at the outdoor sports and pet market. \u0026 nbsp;
Director of the China Mechanical and Electrical Export and Export Chamber of Commerce, Gao Shiwang, told China News Weekly that the reason for exporting speed is many. For some home products with high goods, the demand of home products is returning to normal, and some durable consumer goods are in the epidemicIn the early stage of love, the overdrafts have been overdrawn; the cost of raw materials, labor and logistics is high, and the willingness to receive orders in enterprises is weakened. In addition, the proportion of export -independent brands in some industries in China is still low. SME exports are almost all FOB foundries. With The cost of processing and manufacturing has increased and the cost of shipping is high. The demand is weakened, the order outflow and the production capacity transfer is superimposed. \u0026 nbsp;
Even in the past, cross -border e -commerce is facing challenges. Wang Xin, president of the Shenzhen Cross -border E -commerce Association, said that due to the new regulations on e -commerce platforms such as Amazon, the orders of Chinese sellers have continued to decline since August last year. According to the association survey, there are no new orders or cancellations of orders in the near future, and 23 % of the cancellation of orders, and 16 % of survival difficulties. \u0026 nbsp;
Profit is constantly thin Compared with mechanical and electrical products For higher profit margins, textiles and furniture have always been a thinner profit industry.
In the first four months of this year, the order volume of Qin Bo, the owner of Shaoxing textile, fell by 20 % to 30 %. \u0026 amp; ldquo; The return cycle is affected \u0026 amp; rdquo; Qin Bo said that the fabrics of his exports are based on the customer's payment of deposit, receiving the goods, and the remaining amount. The return cycle has also increased.
Before, the fabrics made from Shaoxing only needed for three or four days, from ordering orders, production goods, shipments to customers to receive The entire cycle is about two months. Now, as domestic and foreign transportation is blocked, in terms of production, the transportation time of raw materials such as yarns required by fabrics has increased; the shipping time has also been extended, and Qinbo estimates that the entire cycle has increased by two months.
The transaction process changes longer means that the funds required for operation have also changed. Qin Bo said that compared with the past, it needs to spend 30 % more funds. And this part of interest also increases the cost of the enterprise.
In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi in the whole year of last year, the depreciation of the US dollar also reduced the purchasing power of foreign customers, the willingness to place orders, the raw materials continued to rise, the cost of shipping rising sea transportation rose increased , Electricity limit production and increasing production costs, etc., are also constantly compressed profit.
\u0026 amp; ldquo; the cost of shipping has increased by 10 times. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Qin Bo said that in addition to FOB (customer payment freight) model, the company also uses CIF (exporting enterprises bear freight) model, which means that enterprises need to digest the cost. The shortage of container supply also makes the enterprise needs to pay in advance, \u0026 amp; ldquo; The previous 2,000 yuan a cabinet, 10 containers a month can be done. It is a large part of the expenditure. \u0026 amp; rdquo;
The textile industry is a thinner industry. Qinbo estimates that the profit margin is about 5 %. \u0026 amp; ldquo; After being busy for a year, I found that there was no money to make money, and may even lose money. \u0026 amp; rdquo; he said that sometimes it doesn't matter if you feel that the order is not connected, but customers still need to maintain.
\u0026 amp; ldquo; I only hope that the current situation can change. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Qin Bo said that in the dilemma of one or two years, the people they can wait for are strong, and many companies that can't hold it up. This year, despite the continued depreciation of the renminbi, Qin Bo discovered that market demand has declined. \u0026 amp; ldquo; European and American customers do not want to risk risks. The reception is too late to cause pressure inventory, and they will reduce orders. \u0026 amp; rdquo;
Liu Yongbin also felt the decline in profit margins caused by rising costs. He signed a contract with customers once a year. Since the epidemic price increase, the cost of raw materials has risen by more than ten points due to the increase in commodities, but it has to perform the previous contract, resulting in a thin profits. \u0026 amp; ldquo; There are also contracts this year, but customers require the price to fall by $ 10, which means that it is about 5 points. \u0026 amp; rdquo; He said that due to the continuous increase in costs, the continuous reduction of profit margins, and increasingly increasing operations.
Zhang Yuanqing, a Guangdong furniture businessman, also encountered the problem of becoming longer. \u0026 amp; ldquo; The customer's order period has changed from the original one month to every two months or even three months, and the capital turnover has slowed down by about 2/3. \u0026 amp; rdquo;
He mainly produced office furniture, card seats and other products, mainly sold to Japan, the United States, and low -end desks The price is 1,000 to 1500 yuan. Due to the large volume of furniture and the low value of the goods, as shipping rises, the shipping costs accounted for only 30 % to 40 % of the goods in the past, and it has now been the same as the value of the goods.
This further diluted profit, \u0026 amp; ldquo; homeThe industry has low thresholds, low technical content, and profit margins is about 4 % to 7 %. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Zhang Yuanqing said that in comparison, the rental business of industrial land factories operates well. He is the second -generation person in charge of the family company. The family has been doing in the furniture industry for more than 30 years and has opened the European and American low -end furniture markets, but he will not intend to invest more in the industry in the future because \u0026 amp; ldquo; ; rdquo;.
Wang Xin, chairman of the Shenzhen Cross -border Electronic Commerce Association, believes that due to the decrease in market demand, the choice of enterprises continues to lower the cost, resulting in the profitability of profits. The quality of the product is also difficult to improve.
How to grab the order?
China's export growth rate has slowed down, and the export growth rate in Southeast Asia has increased significantly since this year. Since March, Indonesia's exports have grown over 40 % year -on -year, Vietnam exceeds 30 %, and Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines have been around 20 %.
Multiple business owners told China News Weekly that the recent orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia, Mexico and other regions. The transfer is not too worried.
\u0026 amp; ldquo; Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam can replace part of China, but because of the limitation of population base, it will not completely replace China's industrial chain. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Liu Yongbin believes that Vietnam's own industrial foundation is weak and industrial facilities still need to rely on China.
\u0026 amp; ldquo; Just like we can only buy Japanese second -hand equipment before, in the field of home appliance production, many large devices in Vietnam are also second -hand eliminated by China. equipment. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Liu Yongbin said that Vietnam's industrial chain is also incomplete. In Guangdong, there are industrial chains such as motor factories and circuit board factories within 20 kilometers. Vietnam has not yet developed to the corresponding scale.
Zhang Yuanqing also believes that there is still a gap between resources in the short term and other regions of Southeast Asia. \u0026 amp; ldquo; Foreign customers who fancy us, including scale, quality, and dating. Due to the metal parts include die -casting, stamping, and surface treatment, the entire production chain is responsible for the enterprise, and the scale production can meet the needs of thousands of orders at a time; after the production chain is complete, the quality will also go up, and the complexity can achieve more than 80 points. The delivery time can also be met. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Zhang YuanQing said, but Southeast Asia is gradually chasing.
From the perspective of the textile industry, Qin Bo believes that there are still fewer fabric orders to overseas. \u0026 amp; ldquo; The dyeing link of Southeast Asian countries has not developed vigorously, and the entire industrial chain lacks a key part. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Qin Bo said that clothing orders affected by environmental protection factors were transferred to Southeast Asia in large quantities.
According to the analysis of Huaxi Securities, from the analysis of export product structure, the types of products that increased exports in Southeast Asian countries in March and April were mainly concentrated in mineral metals , Textiles and clothing, electronic products.
In the field of electronics, according to the data of the import and export chamber of China of China Mechanical and Electrical Products, in recent years, the mobile phone industry that was originally focused on presenting orders and production capacity Trends flow. Chinese mobile phones account for more than 90 % of global production capacity from peak to about 70 % last year. For countries represented by India and Vietnam, in order to actively open up and attract foreign capital inflows, various tax benefits have been implemented, which has become the main inflow area.
On April 11, Apple announced that it will produce its best -selling iPhone 13 in India, which is assembled by Foxconn and Weichin. Markets and overseas markets such as the United States. Also in April, China's electromechanical products increased significantly to India's exports, showing that India's electronics manufacturing industry gradually got rid of the heating of the epidemic. Due to the large population base and the high potential market demand, India has attracted manufacturers such as Samsung, Foxconn, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, OnePlus, and other factories. The local industrial facilities have gradually improved.
Director Gao Shiwang, director of the China Mechanical and Electrical Products Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, believes that since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China is the focus of division of labor. In the electronic information industry with outstanding international division of labor, the export volume of Chinese computers and mobile phones accounts for a high proportion of global, but it is mainly concentrated in the processing assembly links with low added value, while the upstream capital -intensive and technical intensive integration Circuit, semiconductor and other fields are relatively dependent on imports.
\u0026 amp; ldquo; Based on cost -based considerations, more sensitive processing and assembly of labor costs, there are low labor forces such as Vietnam and India to transfer low -low labor countries such as low labor force. Internal trend. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Gao Shiwang said that at the same time, China also has to follow the industrial upgrade path of the four dragons in Asia. By attracting foreign capital and independent technology upgrades, it extends to the upstream.
People familiar with the mechanical and electrical product industry told China News Weekly that at present, the friction and the new crown epidemic have a profound impact on the adjustment of the global industrial layout, India and other emerging countries and other emerging countries It puts pressure on the outflow of my country's low value -added links, while developed countries guide high -tech industries to return to high -tech industries in developed countries through the reason for supply chain security, and at the same time restrict high -tech enterprises to expand investment in China.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told China News Weekly: \u0026 amp; ldquo; The triangle and the Yangtze River Delta are affected by the epidemic, and the two places are China's foreign trade town, which has a serious impact on the industrial chain in the short term. However, the impact of the epidemic on the global industrial chain is not a regular release, and the international industrial chain has been repeatedly impacted, but each impact point is different. In the long run, the epidemic is only one of the factors that affect the industrial chain and supply chain. \u0026 amp; rdquo;
Bai Ming believes that Southeast Asian countries are small and difficult to generate enough economy, but ASEAN integration can also accelerate industrial supporting facilities Essence For labor -intensive foreign trade enterprises, in the future, it can be transferred to the central and western regions and the northeast region, or the strategy of going out in the industry is extended to Southeast Asia, Mexico and other regions under the premise that the industrial chain is still controllable and autonomous.
\u0026 amp; ldquo; We have passed the barbaric growth period. \u0026 amp; rdquo; Liu Yongbin said that for the second half of the year, he expected to recover too fast. It is expected that the export volume this year is only half last year. The China Electromechanical Export and Export Chamber of Commerce predicts that the increase in exports in the second quarter will still fall. Affected by the poor shipping and rising raw materials, especially from March to April, the suspension of production caused by the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Qingdao and other places will have a direct impact in the second quarter.
According to the expected survey of the Shenzhen Cross -border E -commerce Association for the next three years, 40 % of the more optimistic companies account for 40 %. Optimistic account for 30 %. However, Liu Yongbin believes that the cost of raw materials has fallen in the near future, and the shipping costs have fallen by 30 %. In addition, the foreign trade situation has improved.
How to \u0026 amp; ldquo; stabilize foreign trade \u0026 amp; rdquo; has become the focus of attention from all parties. On May 5th, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council hosted a executive meeting of the State Council to determine measures to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade, help stabilize the economic and stable industrial chain supply chain, and propose \u0026 amp; ldquo;Efforts should be made to guarantee orders and stable key industries and labor -intensive industries \u0026 amp; rdquo;.
In response to the outflow challenges faced by some foreign trade enterprises in the near future, the Ministry of Commerce also said that it will help companies to seize orders and develop the market. On the one handHandicapped, make good use of major exhibitions such as the Expo, Canton Fair, and Service and Trade Club to broaden the channels for enterprises; on the other hand, actively support small, medium and micro enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions, and docking overseas buyers.
Gao Shiwang suggested that in response to high marine shipping companies and high cost of raw materials, international shipping capacity should be strengthened and guided Chinese -funded enterprises to strengthen operations overseas port operations.Layout, strengthen the shipping support of state -owned enterprise and shipping companies to brand out -of -sea enterprises, guarantee key industries in terms of freight and capacity, and strengthen the stable supply of commodity supply side.
