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Which Amazon selection tool is better?How does jungle scout accurately predict sales

发布日期:2022-08-26  浏览次数:   信息来源:小编

Many Amazon sellers know that Jungle Scout analyzes the data tool, but it is still hesitant to buy which selection tools to buy. The selection tools used by the seller, foreigners are fine to die. They all use them. Of course, they cannot judge whether they use Jungle Scout to understand how their sales forecasts are done.

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Plug -in version 10 discount registration channel: http://www.72276.com/get/js10h The sales forecast system provides data support for helping Amazon sellers make selection decisions.

Many people are curious how we calculate the monthly sales of Amazon's billions of products.

If you want to know its calculation method and accuracy, or to help Jungle Scout continuously iterate products and improve the system, please read it down, we will unveil the mystery of the account of the account of the account!

The key component unit of account

In short, account Design algorithm. It provides data support for Jungle Scout's selection tools and is one of the cores of the entire system.

In order to provide the most accurate sales value of the industry, this system contains the following key components:
1. Big data? [ 123]
We calculate and process more than 500 million data points every day. Run these data every day, and the processing capacity of the system is very high. You can imagine that these data run in several large warehouses full of servers every day, how spectacular the scene is.

Some users are curious why they pay the web application (Web APP) every month. We have spent these costs. In fact, the cost of processing these data is high. We spend nearly 100,000 per monthThe U.S. dollars to run the ACCUSALES ™ algorithm on the computer and server:

These data come from several different aspects. Some of them come from customers who voluntarily share sales data. These actual sales data are our most valuable information resources, and it is indispensable for improving the accuracy of Accusales ™.

In addition, we will collect the inventory and ranking information of the product, as well as a large amount of other data related to the product, to comprehensively analyze which factors will affect the product sales and sales trend changes.

2. Expert team?
We have a technical Daniel formed The big data team, process these large amounts of data daily, transform these data into sales valuation values \u200b\u200bthrough the Accusales ™ algorithm and apply to the Chrome plug -in and Web APP products.
This big data team has four data scientists. They have more than 30 years of industry experience, and have many years of experience in big data, machine learning and data analysis.
Another big data doctor was recruited in early 2018. This team is constantly expanding rapidly. All these strongest brains are concentrated on one thing every day: continuously improvement of accountsales ™ to make the algorithm more accurate!

3. Customized system?

Data team developed this unique algorithm and system to process, measure and analyze all collected data collected.

At present, we use several microservices (one software development technology), thousands of security servers and multiple data storage centers to process data. Due to the high degree of precision of the system, the ACCUSALES ™ can continue to provide reliable, accurate and latest sales valuation values.

So how does it work?
We have already understood the key component of the composition of account. Next, we will reveal how these elements are combined and operated together!

Information about orders, rankings, inventory and other information
Remember the data points we have previously mentioned earlier to collect more than 500 million data points?

These data include orders, shipments, BSR (best -selling list rankings), inventory, price, parent category/sub -category, and any of the ACCUSALES ™ estimates other related data with help.

Actual orders and estimated sales volume

We collected some real sales data, product listing data and some third -party data, and then identified the relationship between these data and sales forecasts To the weight ratio, calculate the sales forecast according to the algorithm, and then compare the real sales data, and adjust the algorithm accordingly according to the difference, so that the sales prediction value continues to approach the real sales value.

The picture on the left is a data curve of a product category.
The prediction value on this data curve is very close to the actual sales value of a large number of products in this category. Because this algorithm considers a variety of factors that affect sales, and combines real sales data, it can be continuously corrected and improved to reduce errors.

The best -selling ranking (BSR, Best Sellers Rank)

Another key factor in the algorithm is the ranking, also known as BSR ... There are challenges.

We spent several months calculating Amazon's BSR algorithm. However, it was found that over time, the speed of product sales and the historical records of sales also had a great impact on Amazon's product rankings. These time investment is valuable because we find that the ranking of the product is closely related to its sales.
From the perspective of BSR itself, you cannot directly understand the sales of the past. However, after combining other data, BSR has become an important part of sales forecast calculation.

We calculate the ranking data of the product's parent category and sub -category to more accurately estimate the product sales.

Through comprehensive consideration of the historical ranking of the entire product, we overcome the challenges faced by the application of BSR in the calculation, because the ranking data of the product history is estimated to avoid frequent fluctuations (due to the situation caused by ordering, etc. ) The latest ranking data brings to the algorithm system.

Inventory

All the tools for the estimated sales of sales are calculated through a method called

\"999 technique\"
to calculate the product inventory Essence
\"999 skills\" refers to setting the product purchase quantity to 999, and then added it to Amazon's shopping cart. When the total inventory is less than 999, Amazon will prompt you not to place an order because the total inventory of the product is.

For products with less than 999 inventory, this is a good way to track inventory. However, there are a large number of product inventory of more than 999 ... at this time, '999 techniques' is not applicable.

To solve this questionTitle, the ACCUSALES ™ team has developed a proprietary system to obtain inventory -even if it is more than 999 inventory products, we can calculate its inventory number!

This provides more data information for the algorithm, which also means that our tools are much more accurate compared to those tools that can only track the product inventory less than 999.

The unique algorithm

Then we put all these data into the algorithm system to calculate the sales forecast value of the product.

Most people may not be able to imagine
The data we collected is very

complicated

, including a large amount of data points and multiple data sources.

This is mainly due to many changes that affect sales, and these factors will also affect each other. In order to get the most accurate value, we must comprehensively consider all factors. Therefore, there are many well -known algorithms in the field of big data computing, such as linear regression, which cannot be used to solve these problems after testing.

Therefore, we have developed a unique algorithm system that considers all relevant data points to obtain the accuracy that currently can achieve. Optimize the data model of each product category

Because each product category is different, each has its own characteristics, the data is different, and the relationship between data may also be over time with time with time. Change and change.

In ACCUSALES ™, we will update the data models of each product category every month to ensure the use of the optimal algorithm analysis of product data and market trends.

Filtering abnormal values \u200b\u200b

In addition, abnormal values \u200b\u200bare often encountered when processing a large amount of complicated data, such as the sales of certain products increased abnormally due to the sales of certain products. Therefore, we also consider these factors when designing the Accusales ™ algorithm system, so that it can filter out these abnormal values \u200b\u200bvery accurately and prevent the normal calculation of its interference data.

How often does it take to update it?

We are collecting, analyzing and comparing data every day. When the data deviation is found too large, the sales prediction value will be immediately corrected and the algorithm system is adjusted as needed.

When the data prediction is unstable, we will update the system every day. When the data is stable, it will be updated every week or every two weeks.
Adjust the system again and again to ensure the accuracy of the current data, and also provides a guarantee for accurately analyzing the long -term sales of the product.

Accusales ™ and selected toolsWhat is the relationship between?

Accusales ™ provides Jungle Scout with the most reliable sales estimated data, is an important part of this industry's top selection toolkit.

This extreme research spirit is not only reflected in the Accusales ™ algorithm, but also in other fields -such as teaching fields.Jungle Scout provides a lot of high -quality free learning resources.In addition, we have the most professional and dedicated customer service team in the industry.

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